GeoAnalitikKalimantan’s 2026 detections reached 93.5% of its 2015 count; Sumatra’s reached 33.9%.
Where Indonesia’s 2026 vegetation fires were detected, province by province, against earlier seasons over the same window. A detection is not a fire, and every 2026 count is a lower bound: the satellite gaps hide about 4.0%.
Detections, 2026Under 1,300 7 provinces1,300–2,699 6 provinces2,700–7,199 7 provinces7,200–13,999 6 provinces14,000 or more 8 provinces
Figure 1. Indonesia’s 2026 detections by province: VIIRS S-NPP detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct 2026, shaded in fifths. A detection is not a fire; S-NPP only; 2026 counts are lower bounds. Malaysia, Brunei, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea are drawn as outlines for place; Papua and West Papua sit in the inset at lower left; Singapore is drawn as a point. Pick a name above, or a shape, to zoom: the line under the map then gives that province’s count, as does hovering a shape. Every province is also listed in Table 1. Provinces: geoBoundaries 2017 set, 34 provinces, before the 2022 Papua split, simplified for this map by the study. Detections: NASA FIRMS, aggregated by the study. Map data from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), via geoBoundaries, available under the Open Database License (ODbL).
All 34 provinces
| Province | 2026 | 2015 | 2026 as share of 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalimantan | |||
| Central Kalimantan | 139,739 | 158,951 | 88% |
| West Kalimantan | 78,346 | 53,670 | 146% |
| East Kalimantan | 27,064 | 39,585 | 68% |
| South Kalimantan | 22,989 | 31,868 | 72% |
| North Kalimantan | 2,889 | 5,833 | 50% |
| Sumatra | |||
| South Sumatra | 45,269 | 120,669 | 38% |
| Bangka-Belitung Islands | 7,421 | 10,382 | 71% |
| Jambi | 7,168 | 38,514 | 19% |
| Riau | 6,124 | 38,561 | 16% |
| Lampung | 5,091 | 6,954 | 73% |
| Aceh | 2,331 | 3,030 | 77% |
| North Sumatra | 1,317 | 4,471 | 29% |
| Riau Islands | 1,291 | 1,098 | 118% |
| West Sumatra | 1,060 | 3,766 | 28% |
| Bengkulu | 776 | 2,492 | 31% |
| Papua and West Papua | |||
| Papua | 72,002 | 44,923 | 160% |
| West Papua | 14,189 | 3,006 | 472% |
| Rest of Indonesia | |||
| Maluku | 16,935 | 12,886 | 131% |
| East Nusa Tenggara | 11,538 | 13,502 | 85% |
| Central Sulawesi | 8,313 | 9,787 | 85% |
| North Maluku | 7,711 | 5,155 | 150% |
| East Java | 7,559 | 6,855 | 110% |
| South Sulawesi | 7,514 | 6,825 | 110% |
| West Nusa Tenggara | 6,229 | 5,248 | 119% |
| Southeast Sulawesi | 5,708 | 4,516 | 126% |
| North Sulawesi | 2,732 | 3,544 | 77% |
| Central Java | 2,304 | 2,525 | 91% |
| West Java | 2,092 | 3,176 | 66% |
| Gorontalo | 1,854 | 2,973 | 62% |
| West Sulawesi | 1,821 | 2,325 | 78% |
| Banten | 626 | 861 | 73% |
| Bali | 86 | 58 | 148% |
| Special Region of Yogyakarta | 70 | 59 | 119% |
| Jakarta Special Capital Region | 28 | 84 | 33% |
Table 1. Every province’s VIIRS S-NPP detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, 2026 and 2015, by island group. Pick a name to find it on Figure 1. Map data from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), via geoBoundaries, available under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Peak week 44,083. Totals 2026: 271,027; 2023: 78,814; 2019: 156,734; 2015: 289,907
Peak week 31,218. Totals 2026: 77,848; 2023: 36,172; 2019: 112,289; 2015: 229,937
Peak week 11,854. Totals 2026: 83,120; 2023: 52,252; 2019: 58,660; 2015: 80,560
Peak week 22,006. Totals 2026: 86,191; 2023: 12,406; 2019: 6,971; 2015: 47,929
20262015, 2019 and 2023
Figure 2. Weekly VIIRS S-NPP detections, Monday to Sunday, 1 Jan – 15 Oct of each year, by island group: 2026 in red, 2015, 2019 and 2023 in grey. Each panel has its own scale; Papua and West Papua, farthest from Malaysia, come last. NASA FIRMS, aggregated by the study.
Kalimantan’s 271,027 detections are 93.5% of its 2015 count (96–98% with the gaps filled); Sumatra’s 77,848 are 33.9% (36%)
Filling the gaps adds the detections the S-NPP passes missed, estimated from NOAA-20; the higher Kalimantan figure also fills the night of 12 Oct, when NOAA-20 missed Kalimantan and Sumatra as well. Lower bounds, S-NPP only.
| 2015 | 289,907 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 156,734 | |
| 2023 | 78,814 | |
| 2025 | 30,729 | |
| 2026 | 271,027 |
| 2015 | 229,937 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 112,289 | |
| 2023 | 36,172 | |
| 2025 | 18,447 | |
| 2026 | 77,848 |
Figure 3. VIIRS S-NPP detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, in 2015, 2019, 2023, 2025 and 2026: 2026 in red, earlier seasons in grey, one scale for both island groups.
Central Kalimantan had the most detections, 139,739, second only to its own 2015 (158,951)
Lower bound. West Kalimantan, which borders Sarawak, comes next.
| Central Kalimantan | 139,739 158,951 | |
|---|---|---|
| West Kalimantan | 78,346 53,670 | |
| Papua | 72,002 44,923 | |
| South Sumatra | 45,269 120,669 | |
| East Kalimantan | 27,064 39,585 | |
| South Kalimantan | 22,989 31,868 | |
| Maluku | 16,935 12,886 | |
| West Papua | 14,189 3,006 | |
| East Nusa Tenggara | 11,538 13,502 | |
| Central Sulawesi | 8,313 9,787 |
Central Kalimantan, 2026Other provinces, 20262015
Figure 4. The ten provinces with the most 2026 detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct (first number), with each province’s 2015 count as a grey tick (second number). Map data from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), via geoBoundaries, available under the Open Database License (ODbL).
West Kalimantan, which borders Sarawak, has already passed every full year on record with 78,346 detections, and so have Papua (72,002) and West Papua (14,189)
On record means every year since 2012, where this S-NPP series starts. Five more provinces beat the same window of every earlier year, but not yet a full year. Filling the gaps only raises 2026, so every record stands.
| Province | 2026, 1 Jan – 15 Oct | Previous best, same window | Previous best, full year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above every full year on record | |||
| West Kalimantan | 78,346 | 56,259 (2014) | 58,606 (2014) |
| Papua | 72,002 | 44,923 (2015) | 68,801 (2015) |
| West Papua | 14,189 | 3,006 (2015) | 4,445 (2015) |
| These beat the same window, not the full year | |||
| Maluku | 16,935 | 12,886 (2015) | 19,614 (2015) |
| North Maluku | 7,711 | 5,155 (2015) | 7,865 (2015) |
| East Java | 7,559 | 7,209 (2019) | 11,507 (2019) |
| South Sulawesi | 7,514 | 6,825 (2015) | 10,899 (2015) |
| Southeast Sulawesi | 5,708 | 4,516 (2015) | 11,314 (2015) |
Table 2. Provinces whose 2026 count beats the same window, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, of every year since 2012: a solid red square where it also beats every full year, a hollow one where it beats the same window only. The previous best year is in brackets. Map data from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), via geoBoundaries, available under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Rain alone does not explain Sumatra’s low count: its fire points had their driest August–September of the 12 seasons since 2015, yet Jambi burned at 19% of its 2015 count, Riau at 16% and South Sumatra at 38%
The study does not test why. Rain days run on local clocks. The rain at each fire point is on Why 2026.
| Jambi | 19% 7,168 of 38,514 | |
|---|---|---|
| Riau | 16% 6,124 of 38,561 | |
| South Sumatra | 38% 45,269 of 120,669 | |
| 02015’s count |
Figure 5. 2026 detections as a share of 2015’s, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, in the three Sumatran provinces with fire points: 2026 as a red dot, 2015’s count as the ink rule. Map data from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), via geoBoundaries, available under the Open Database License (ODbL).
55.1% of Sumatra and Kalimantan’s 2026 detections lie on peat, close to 2015 (57.4%) and 2019 (61.4%)
‘On peat’ means GFW peat cover of 0.5 or more at the detection. The share was lower in 2023 (41.6%) and 2025 (15.8%).
| 2015 | 57.4% | |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 61.4% | |
| 2023 | 41.6% | |
| 2025 | 15.8% | |
| 2026 | 55.1% |
Figure 6. Share of Sumatra and Kalimantan’s VIIRS S-NPP detections on peat, 1 Jan – 15 Oct: 2026 in red. Peat: “Global peatland extent.” Accessed on 16 Oct 2026 from Global Nature Watch (CC BY 4.0; Miettinen et al. 2016; Gumbricht et al. 2017). Sampled at fire-detection points by the study.
Papua and West Papua recorded 86,191 detections, 1.8 times their 2015 count; they are inside Indonesia’s total and shown apart
Kalimantan holds 52% of Indonesia’s 2026 detections, Papua and West Papua 17%, Sumatra 15% and the rest of Indonesia 16%; Sumatra and Kalimantan, the island groups nearest Malaysia, hold 67%. This study does not trace where Papua’s smoke went.
Sumatra and Kalimantan 67%
Kalimantan 52% Sumatra 15%
Papua and West Papua 17%
Rest 16%
Figure 7. Indonesia’s 2026 VIIRS S-NPP detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, by island group. Sumatra and Kalimantan are bracketed as a pair; Papua and West Papua stand apart.
The rest of Indonesia recorded 83,120 detections, 16% of the total, and five of its provinces beat the same window of every earlier year
They are East Java, Maluku, North Maluku, South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi; none has yet passed its best full year (Table 2).
Maluku North Maluku East Java South Sulawesi Southeast Sulawesi
On MODIS, the 2001–2026 series, 2026’s 118,545 detections rank third of 26 years behind 2015 and 2006, and third under one rule for every year too
The MODIS archive changes version over the series, and FIRMS’ typing of detections changed with it, so the study also counted every year with one rule. On one rule 2006 is 5% above 2026, against 0.8% on FIRMS’ types, so it is not a tie.
- 2001
- 119,4732006
- 125,9612015
- 118,5452026
Figure 8. Indonesia’s MODIS detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct of each year, 2001–2026, on FIRMS’ types: 2026 in red, 2015 in grey, 2006 labelled. NASA FIRMS, aggregated by the study.
| Typing | 2026 | 2015 | 2006 | 2026’s place | 2006 above 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIRMS’ types | 118,545 | 125,961 | 119,473 | 3 | 0.8% |
| One rule, every year | 118,644 | 135,984 | 124,709 | 3 | 5.1% |
Table 3. 2026 against 2015 and 2006 on MODIS, 1 Jan – 15 Oct, on FIRMS’ own typing and on one rule for every year (Method and credits).
Indonesia’s own figures: burned area, released only to mid-year
Counts only. The two outlets label the 2026 period Jan–Jun and Jan–Jul. No official Aug–Oct figure was found. Earlier years are given for scale.
| Period | Burned area | Published by |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Jun 2026 | 202,011 haSource: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id) | Katadata Databoks |
| Jan–Jul 2026 | 202,004 haSource: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id) | Kompas.com (Lestari) |
| 2015, whole year | 2,611,411 haSource: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id) | KLHK Direktorat PKHL, SiPongi "Rekapitulasi Luas Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan (Ha) Per Provinsi", archived copy |
| 2019, whole year | 1,649,258 haSource: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id) | KLHK Direktorat PKHL, SiPongi "Rekapitulasi Luas Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan (Ha) Per Provinsi", archived copy |
| 2023, whole year | 1,161,193 haSource: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id) | Katadata Databoks |
Table 4. Indonesia’s official burned area as published, each with its outlet, rounded to whole hectares by the study.
Malaysia’s own vegetation fires produced 7,535 S-NPP detections in 2026, 1.5% of Indonesia’s; 2014 had 36,261
A lower bound, with about 11% hidden by the gaps; the offshore rules removed 47.
- 2012
- 36,2612014
- 7,5352026
Figure 9. Malaysia’s VIIRS S-NPP vegetation-fire detections, 1 Jan – 15 Oct of each year, 2012–2026: 2026 in red, 2014 in grey. NASA FIRMS, aggregated by the study.
Limits
- A detection is a hot pixel seen from orbit, not a fire and not burned area; counts are compared, not areas.
- Every 2026 count is a lower bound: satellite gaps hide some detections, estimated on the method page.
- Seasons are compared on detection counts only; modelled smoke is not used to rank them.
- ‘On peat’ rests on GFW’s peat map sampled at each detection, not on ground survey.
- Official burned area is quoted as published and never mixed with detection counts.
- Papua and West Papua are counted in every Indonesia total; their smoke is not traced.
- The study names no company or concession.
Data, method and credits
- Detections: “We acknowledge the use of data and/or imagery from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/firms), part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for Earth observations (LANCE) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/lance) and NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).”
- Peat: “Global peatland extent.” Accessed on 16 Oct 2026 from Global Nature Watch (CC BY 4.0; Miettinen et al. 2016; Gumbricht et al. 2017). Sampled at fire-detection points by the study.
- Boundaries: geoBoundaries (Runfola et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231866), CC BY 4.0; provinces and states contain information from OpenStreetMap, under the ODbL.
- Boundary files under the ODbL, free online at geoBoundaries’ commit-pinned URLs: github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/IDN/ADM1/geoBoundaries-IDN-ADM1.geojson, github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/MYS/ADM1/geoBoundaries-MYS-ADM1.geojson, github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/TLS/ADM0/geoBoundaries-TLS-ADM0.geojson, github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/PNG/ADM0/geoBoundaries-PNG-ADM0_simplified.geojson and github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/THA/ADM0/geoBoundaries-THA-ADM0_simplified.geojson. We repaired and simplified them (tolerance 0.0005°) and used them to assign fire detections to provinces, states and countries.
- Burned area: Source: SIPONGI KEMENHUT (sipongi.gakkum.kehutanan.go.id), through the outlets named in Table 4.
- No credited source or agency endorses this study, and no figure here is official.
- Every licence, DOI and the method: Method and credits.